Jul 24, 2013

Likonomics,Watch It

From Chinese to English-speaking world the world, Li Keqiang Economics (Likonomics) This time finally realized export.

Abe Economics (Abenomics) hot on the occasion, I looked in the English-speaking world found no Li Keqiang Economics (Likonomics) this assertion (until now still show misspelled word software), but it was in the Chinese world has considered overwhelming, It is said that the earliest from the "Southern Weekend" reported in March this year.

Days of the New Deal Prime Minister on the occasion comes, the bank created by the Barclays English popular Chinese hot new word, then Likonomics how to define? Barclays reports that there are three pillars: Not introduced stimulus measures, deleveraging and structural reforms.

First of all, never introduced to stimulate policy, official apparently suffered no small pressure. China's current economy is clearly in a downward trend, the official June Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.1%, slightly higher than the 50 balanced line ups and downs, hit eight-month low, and the data show some important subprojects worrying. Medium and long term, China's economy is difficult to maintain 8% growth has become the industry consensus, the potential growth rate over the next decade interval may be 5% to 6% range or even lower. Today, this figure may seem incredible, but the country is indeed surpass the norm, from high-speed economic growth is slowing more in line with the laws of gravity, once flourishing in the Japanese economy also experienced this stage, the first slow down to 5%, then less than 1%. Li Keqiang does not stimulate indeed one of the highlights of the New Deal, recently he again shouted "Activate financial stock funds," or also imply generous stimulus cautious, specific measures are still to be seen. CPC eighteen before, many observers expect the new government came to power after the rapid introduction of incentives as a "policy package." The expectation then gradually fall, regardless of time or economic effect, apparently the new government has been cutting needs and past policies are unlikely to soon sell massive stimulus plan.


On the other hand, the incentives will certainly be negative it? Not necessarily. All kinds of large-scale investment projects launched essentially expanded government involvement and intervention in economic life will obviously lead to increased investment, credit expansion, inflation, expansion and other consequences. However, apart from this kind of empowering style stimulus policies, there is another type of stimulus, that massive tax cuts, increased investment in social security, etc., can be called decentralization style stimulus.

From a historical point of view, the Chinese government stimulus policies for the former type of frequent use, very much at home, after a class of policies is often no favor, rarely have a chance to be implemented, even though economists generally believe that the latter type of policy on economic growth with more large positive effects. China still needs now and in the future, after a class of stimuli, is difficult to assert the latter category should withdraw stimulus policy arsenal.

Secondly, deleveraging is the latest buzzword, which also comes from Li Keqiang for "To activate the stock of money and credit to support the real economy", "optimize allocation of financial resources, with a good increment and revitalize the stock" and other derivatives views. If you say no more performance for fiscal policy to stimulate the field, try to leverage the more reflected in monetary policy over the recent "money shortage" which can be described as a typical representative.

Under awash with liquidity, "money shortage" incident is thought-provoking, seemingly paradox of rationality what? Chinese economic leverage is too high, the future existence of further overcapacity drawbacks. Officials hope the initiative to leverage all truth, but this situation with Chinese investment and financing system inherent crux Away relations and hopes that docking is not always reality.

In interest rates, industry access yet to release the circumstances, on the one hand is the lack of investment channels have a large number of deposits at low cost into the bank, the other is the lack of private investment funds corresponding channels, leading to underground financial rampant. This dual system will inevitably lead to huge capital arbitrage motive, everyone they hate shadow banking system but is "shadow banking" Bale. It is precisely because deleveraging in the right direction, but this goal can be achieved is still uncertain number, but at least it difficult to squeeze through wishful thinking can get inter-bank market.

Last term structural reforms, and this is not the introduction of a superposition of stimulation and after the inevitable deleveraging point. Li Keqiang late last year called "Reform is the biggest bonus," for which he won a lot of extra points. Recalling China's three decades of economic growth and reform can be described as the core driving force, its effect over the demographic dividend, accession to the WTO and other factors. The problem is that, when the reform into deep water from the shallow waters after also means easy roads are completed, leaving China time but doubly urgent. Reforms in recent years can be described as the greatest voices of civil society, perhaps contrasting reform underpowered, the resistance is too large.

From "does not stimulate, deleveraging, structural reform," three in terms of solutions unspeakable stereotypes, then we are talking about economics, when Li Keqiang, in the end is talking about it? Council Li Keqiang economics, based on the direction of the moment as a standard, or in the future as the result of assessment?

Recalling Reagan economics, economics, etc. vocabulary Thatcher speaking, a head of state or head of government named economics, not only in its name and location, but also in its corresponding economic policies - in this sense, the future examine the economic history of modern China, Zhu Rongji economics ultimately have a place, and Li Keqiang, economics is still being constructed.

Indeed, Li Keqiang, the economic situation for many judgments, he overcapacity in the Chinese economy, excessive administrative controls, fiscal worries huge financial risks and other factors have a clear understanding. History is always cruel and impartial, and ultimately allow the definition and recognition of Li Keqiang economics to get a benchmark, not from problem diagnosis, but his policy achievements.

How complex situation, the design of the current political power structure that can be accommodated is recognized by the community, so that all parties Incentive reform program, the difficulty is huge. The program at least to answer the following questions: How to use decentralization style stimulus policies uphold fundamental growth? How to solve the problem of two-track system of financial markets? How to market-oriented means to resolve the excess capacity? How to constrain local government investment impulse? Only when such a specific program introduced when Li Keqiang economics really molding.

Policies a little slower, but also means to reform a little more space, perhaps a good thing. American Economic Jia Bali? Norton has long been concerned China's economic transformation, he once had a judge: He believes that Chinese policy makers are often more valued decisiveness (decisiveness) instead of credibility (credibility). I think this judge is very sensitive roots of the market economy era, the determination may be more powerful, as China entered an era of reconstruction rule, then the importance of credibility will rise. A credible policy makers, in order to win more support among the game, often better able to maintain market rules.

So far, all sectors of the legal background of the PhD in economics is not low expectations, high expectations need landing significant impact with their sudden introduction of wrong decisions, Xu correct figure is more reasonable reform program. Despite being regarded as a civilian prime minister, but the Chinese people for Li Keqiang's personality is still lack of understanding, FT Chinese Network interview Li Keqiang college classmate, he had revealed a detail: "You see these old photos of college. Li group photo shoot, almost always like to stand behind, or stand on the edge of his usual silence, never assertive, have learning problems ask him, Insider him. "

Jul 22, 2013

Print media: hundreds of Chinese soldiers crossed the line of control carried banners demanding the withdrawal of India

The original title: print media stir-fried PLA new "intrusion" worry war Prelude

[Global Times special correspondent in India Lu Fangming Li Yuan] in Xiaoting not after a few days, the India media hype up the Liberation Army 21 days once more "transgression events". "India times" announced the same day, July 16th and 17, two days, about 100 people a Chinese troops crossed the "east line of control" in Ladakh, carrying banners asked India to withdraw from "occupation" region. India CNN-IBN news said, the April to May in Ladakh had the similar incident, "confrontation" time for 21 days, but the number is not the more the pla. India concerns China, "repeated invasions" war "prelude" upcoming India; also has India's military source said, not a neighboring with India, unless New Delhi a sensible foreign policy.

"India times" 21 days of exclusive reports, "cross-border" Liberation Army rode along, with India border guards "face to face with", then returned the previous location, event alerted India defense, diplomacy and the prime minister's office. A India official said, "face to face the situation lasted for two days, and 1 Chinese vehicle malfunction, 18 days to restore the status quo". India Zee News news network reported, India has asked the militaryThe commanderMeeting to discuss this event.At the same time, New Delhi, the country peaceful high-level "China team" has been called diplomatic, defense, interior, CIA and collecting external information of the India Bureau of investigation related meetings convened.

"India times" rendering, "Chinese dragon" once again move constantly, this incident increased gradually in the two Asian giants temperature relationship. India media said, the past 3 years the people's Liberation Army "cross-border" more than 600 times. 17 last month, the PLA 1 patrol in qumar segment boundaries, demolition of India surveillance cameras, until India's Defense Ministry of Changan Tony visit to Beijing the day before the return. Anthony arrived in Beijing in early 7, with Chinese Defense Minister often million session after talking, he expressed satisfaction over the outcome of the talks. The two countries are on 1 new frontier defense cooperation agreement China previously proposed for discussion.

After the India media the latest disclosure of Chinese troops into India "territory", India's ruling Congress party expresses 21 days, India is ready to respond to any "invasion" from the Chinese action. Congress Party spokesman Mim Afzal comment on these reports said, "invasion" is not a new idea, any unexpected situation struggle in India has been completely ready and on the border, "there is always some things happen at the border, this is nothing new, can be solved through negotiations way. In the event you are talking about the media reports out, I also not accurate information, the Department of defense and the Ministry of foreign affairs is more qualified to talk about it. Our country is strong enough, without having to worry about anyone." India media 21 days to mention again,The India government approved within 7 years of the formation of a mountain strike corps of about 50000 troopsThe news has been "from china".

"India's defense of" magazine editor Velma 21 said, China knows India is weak and powerless, Chinese Army repeatedly "invasion" prelude to war is coming in India's "".Velma said: "they (the Chinese) India is expected to become very powerful in the future days, they know that New Delhi today no position, leadership in the political paralysis." A retired Air Force lieutenant general A K Singer said, with a nervous history for the borders between the two countries, China has "acupuncture" India, he suggested that the India leadership should continue to put forward this problem.However, India's former army chief of staff V K Singer expressed a different opinion.According to India, "Daily News and analysis of newspaper" reported, Singer said, India today with China border disputes caused by India disability policy on this issue, China and the vast majority of neighboring countries have fixed boundary. Now is not a neighboring satisfied India, unless India has informed foreign policy.

The United States of America "defense news" that, despite the diplomatic negotiations continue, but India analysts and defense officials think, the border dispute will not be solved properly in the short term. China and India have been in border areas to build facilities, and the deployment of weapons and equipment.However, if India is ready to play a potential war with China in the near future, the possibility is very small. The India defense analyst Bosley said, in the comprehensive national strength is not enough to sustain the level before the war, the two countries will maintain the status quo, and this situation will continue for a long time.

According to "India times" reported, India security department 21, suggested that the Ministry of the interior to prosecute 3 "invasion" of the Chinese territory of India. Reports say, these people are from Xinjiang, was arrested in June 12th in northern Ladakh, here is the India-China border confrontation. The 3 men with a large political map, also carrying a simple tool, containing egg canned food, 900 yuan in China and leather jacket. India security department said, the 3 men knew India border patrol in the Ladakh region of the route and the border post position, lied at the trial. "Global Times" reporter 21, got the news is, these people are being held in leh, guard the indo-tibet border police force.

Four smoke! Russia's 160000 National People's Congress

The original title: four smoke! 160000 of Russia's military field exposure (from Beijing)

  Introduction: Recently, Russian troops held a large scale in the Far EastMilitaryExercise, a total of 160000 participants, over the years rare. This atlas for exercises in Eastern military force in the Zugor range of water barrier of the tactical exercises scene picture. The picture from the Russian world arms trade center director "defense" magazine editor-in-chief coronation publicly in person on the log. Russian President Dmitry Putin also flew to visit the scene of the exercise.

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President Putin took a helicopter ride to Zugor 247th armies to synthetic training field, watching the July 17th evening by Novosibirsk and zabaykalsky Krai into this aggregation (Chita, thirty-sixth (twenty-ninth), forty-first (Yule Ulan-Ude) plus) Army Corps were forced to cross the river bilateral tactical exercises, to oversee the troops move, air reconnaissance, the use of unmanned aerial vehicle.

Jul 21, 2013

China has been surrounded by the Japanese submarine 18 boat look at fiercely as a tiger does

Commissioned in 2009, "black dragon" class submarine underwater drainage volume reached 4100 tons, is the world's largest conventional submarine.

According to the international authoritative organization statistics, the next 10 years, the Asia-Pacific region will have at least 9 countries and regions to implement the 18 submarine construction projects, involving 83 submarines, of which at least half of AIP submarine.

With the increasingly fierce competition of sea rights, in recent years China's neighboring countries have been trying to increase its military power, especially naval strength. Many countries have paid great attention to the construction of the submarine force, and it has the potential of race each other.

    Japan: submarine service life short, new model

After the surrender of Japan's defeat in World War II, the military capacity was almost completely destroyed, due to the "Peace Constitution" and the international treaty limitations, it can only be the development of conventional submarine. For decades, Japan in this regard is under the foot of the effort, now, the country has become one of the most advanced technology in the world of conventional submarine.

Since the 60's of last century, Japan has made the "early" summer "tide" "tide" toward "tide" "whirlpool" "Xi" tide "Oyashio" as well as the new AIP (air independent propulsion) "dragon", a total of eight kinds of models of submarine. Now,The Japanese NavyA total of 3 class of 18 submarines, including 5 ships "dragon", 11 ships "Oyashio" and 2 "spring".

AsThe Japanese submarineIn the main, "Oyashio" class is one of the largest in the world of conventional submarine discharge,Water drainage amountUp to 3000 tons. The class submarine with guide 6Wire-guided torpedoThe ability to attack surface and underwater targets, at the same time with "harpoon" submarineAnti-ship missileAnd the 89 typeWire-guided torpedoThe number of tasks, can carry out underwater anti-ship, anti-submarine and reconnaissance, mine etc..

And commissioned in 2009, "black dragon" class submarineWater drainage amountIt reached 4100 tons, is the world's largest conventional submarine. This type of boat with the AIP system, so that the water continuously submerged time can be prolonged to 3 weeks.

In recent years,The Japanese NavyBasically every year in accordance with the retirement of a service, a way of old and new submarine replacement work, therefore, the service life is short, a new model of submarine.However, nowThe Japanese NavyIs ready to take the number of active submarine increased to 22 aircraft, plus the boat with 2 ships, submarines possess will reach 24 aircraft.Japan's expansionThe submarine forceScale, is to strengthen in the field of conventional submarines, with "quality and quantity combination" mode, promote its to Asia-Pacific underwater control ability.

Japanese media said the Chinese or anti-satellite weapons to U.S. involvement the Diaoyu Islands

On China's anti-access / area-denial strategy, as a popular theory, China will "best" -- launch missile saturation attack mass to the United States and Japan base, to occupy the advantage, win quickly.

[Japan "foreign scholars" magazine website July 19th article] title: anti-access strategy the United States airsea battle for China: who is the winner? (author of the magazine editor Harry Kaziyanis) recently, a colleague asked me a very simple question: if the United States of America the airsea battle (ASB) really and China's anti-access / area-denial strategy (A2/AD) duke it out, who will win?

The answer is very simple: who never win.

However, please allow me to my back a few words. These two concepts are a key point to be blurred out, that is, the possibility of conflict and conflict situations in which may upgrade to what extent. If the air - war and anti-access strategies should really hard, the key problem lies in the details. Although experts are keen to discuss and analyze the possible use of any weapon and how to use these weapons, but the use of these weapons in the background and then how will things develop equally important. In such a situation, play a critical role in the background.

Let us take time to think, may result inU. S.The outbreak of the conflict parties.Mind two:The Diaoyu IslandsThe escalation of disputes or territorial disputes in the South China Sea deterioration.

The outbreak of the conflict, the most likely -- despite the current tense atmosphere, but also far away from the conflict seemed one is Japan in the East China Sea dispute. The most likely scenario is a ship or aircraft accident collision.Diplomatic efforts failed, and some people for some reason, to escalate, and is ready to make trouble, to send troops landed on the disputed islands or manufacturing eraser was possessed by the event. In this case, we assume thatU. S.Will come to the aid of japan.

So, what happens next? Forecast the trend of this situation is almost impossible, draw some conclusions but we can from the American scholars write papers in this issue.

The good news! The United Nations suddenly a large territory of China

China won the 3000 square kilometers of the International Seabed Area

In July 19, 2013, in Jamaica the capital city of Kingston at the International Seabed Authority nineteenth session Council approval, put forward China Ocean association international submarine cobalt-rich crust resources exploration and mining claims. China Ocean International Seabed Mining Association of successThe exclusive rights of explorationAndPriority of mining right,The mining area in the West Pacific Ocean, an area of 3000 square kilometersFollowing the 2001 Association, is the ocean polymetallic nodule exploration area in 2011, in the eastern Pacific Ocean Polymetallic Sulfide prospecting area in southwest India ocean, third exclusive exploration and mining in the international seabed area.

According to foreign ministry web site reported, in the Chinese government guarantees, China Ocean Association in 2012 July to the International Seabed Authority proposed cobalt crust mining claims.The meeting also approved the application diggings Japan proposed, four mining area but Russia, Britain, India, Singapore has different resource application has been delayed until the next review.

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The PLA fighter -20 continuous flight of difficult moves show mobility

The following picture is the latest in the network exposure of the 2002 f -20 stealth fighter flight photos. Map f -20 fighter planes in the air continuously made more difficult maneuvers, show its excellent air mobility. But this group photo shoot time is not clear.

 

The original picture: J -20 difficult flight show flexibility.

The original picture: J -20 difficult flight show flexibility.

The Chinese military exposure of the East Sea Fleet battleship

PLA pictorial: at the beginning of 6, the East Sea Fleet organized a field full system of all elements of the whole process of military training exercises in the east of Zhejiang pull out quietly. Since the formation of the East China Sea fleet, equipment department, give full play to the advantage of the new system, close to the mission to actively explore the new way of equipment support, accurate, fast, efficient equipment support, provide strong support for the forces to fulfill the mission of the task. Figure is a new type of missile boats and repair.

At the beginning of the year, found the East Sea Fleet equipment department leadership to a submarine force research, individual, because there is no in-depth understanding of equipment of equipment performance, "whether I can do" there are concerns with a sense of security, lack of confidence, leading to install. Equipment department leader was a serious problem, they think, not only to grasp equipment hardware maintenance "hard security," soft security will do a good job of crew safety with confidence "".

In this way, can dispel the doubts of crew equipment safety performance, let them rest assured voyage. Soon, the fleet will strengthen the crew equipment with confidence into the crew training category. They invited experts from research institutes to carry out equipment safety crew, tour with decoration training, from the overall design, the submarine equipment reliability, vitality, emergency control line to the bandage;

The original picture: many ships at the same time into the factory repair.
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The original picture: many ships at the same time into the factory repair.

The original picture: new missile boats and repair.
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The original picture: new missile boats and repair.

Valve repair and other aspects in detail, and together with the crew of disposal methods of sudden failure, not only improve the repair ability, and the elimination of launchman mental haze. With the development of naval mission task variety, naval activity area extending from offshore to open sea, cross-regional operation, non-combat formationMilitaryThe task of action is more and more frequent, the equipment support ability requirements are also getting higher and higher.

Equipment department party "members" feel, as equipment support forces, no matter how the changing situation, regardless of what styles of fighting forces, no matter how big task military strength, we should always put the best technical state of equipment ready to come out, always put the equipment maximum security potential plays out, always keep the best equipped fighting force, as the equipment support first, in order to ensure the target with constant and changing task requirements.